Will Israel and Iran Start World War III?

Trump thinks so, here’s what the experts say…

Tensions have continued to rise this past week in the Middle East. It has many warning, including Donald Trump, that this could be the tipping point for a third World War.

• For context: World War I was famously set off by a minor conflict that dragged major powers into the world’s most lethal war (up to that point).

Could the same thing be happening here?

The short answer: Probably not. Most experts think whatever happens next in the Middle East (though still terrible and deadly) won’t be enough to draw the world’s three superpowers — the U.S., Russia, and China — into a direct conflict.

But but but: Russia and China would love to see the U.S. get bogged down in a lose-lose conflict in the Middle East while they focus elsewhere.

• A major war or proxy war between Israel and Iran could draw U.S. American attention and resources away from preventing or effectively responding to Russian or Chinese aggression elsewhere, either in Eastern Europe or Southeast Asia.
• Plus, public support in the U.S. is already plummeting for American interventionism. The public would likely not support a direct confrontation with Russia or China — barring a direct attack on the U.S.

The big picture: Israel’s wars and ongoing genocide in Gaza will probably not start a third World War, but they could complicate or jeopardize U.S. American responses to Russian or Chinese aggression elsewhere, either in Ukraine or Taiwan.

Go deeper: If you want some truly scary reading (it is almost Halloween, after all) check out RAND’s memo on understanding the risk of escalation in Ukraine or The Week’s breakdown on what would happen if China invades Taiwan.

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